Unless there is power and the rebirth of Nigerian manufacturing, the naira will continue to stumble against the dollar, former Central Bank of Nigeria deputy governor, Kingsley Moghalu has stated.
Moghalu said there has to be value added export manufacturing, other than oil for the naira to close the gap against the dollar and the key to this is generating at least 20, 000 mega watts of electricity.
“Nigeria does not (yet) have a productive export economy. That’s the heart of the matter,” Moghalu wrote on his X handle.
“And we do not have $100 billion in foreign reserves. So on what basis would the Naira forex rate return to some fantasy land soon? It will also take time to regain or achieve full investor confidence such as we had when we were there (and the rate was N150-165 to the $).
“The sooner we focus on a painstaking creation of value-added manufacturing export economy that earns forex beyond oil in real and significant terms, the better.
“Key to this is the electricity conundrum in which we are at less than 4,000MW of generation for a population of 200 million for decades now. Take power to even 20K megawatts (let’s not talk of 50K for South Africa’s 60 million population or Brazil’s 181K megawatts for a population only slightly larger than Nigeria) and you will see what the Nigerian entrepreneurial spirit is capable of.”
He added that it is just a wishing thinking by Nigerians the naira will bounce back to N400/$1
“Those who want the Naira to be N400 to the $ are living in a dream world. Even discounting for the negative impact of speculative attacks on the value of the Naira, the exchange rate will (and should) reflect its market value in reality, not the artificiality that the Emefiele era central bank sought to maintain to please economic illiterates in political power at the time.”
Free-Falling